About UFC Analytics
We combine statistical modeling and machine learning to deliver transparent, data-driven predictions for every UFC fight.
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a hybrid approach that combines an Elo rating system with a feature-based machine learning model. The Elo system provides a dynamic measure of fighter strength that updates after every fight, accounting for opponent quality and margin of victory.
On top of Elo, our ML model ingests over 30 features per fighter including striking volume, accuracy, takedown success rates, submission tendencies, physical attributes (height, reach, stance), recent form, and stylistic matchup indicators. These features are processed through a gradient-boosted ensemble to produce calibrated probability estimates.
The model is retrained after every event with updated fight data and Elo ratings, ensuring predictions reflect the most current performance trends.
How Predictions Work
1. Win Probabilities
For every fight, we calculate the probability of each fighter winning. These probabilities are calibrated -- a 70% prediction should win about 70% of the time.
2. Method Predictions
We predict how the fight is likely to end -- KO/TKO, submission, or decision -- based on both fighters' finishing tendencies and defensive metrics.
3. Key Factors
Premium users get a breakdown of the factors driving each prediction -- which advantages matter most in the specific matchup.
Data Sources
Our data pipeline aggregates fight statistics from multiple sources including official UFC records and SportsData API. We maintain a comprehensive database of every UFC fight, round-by-round statistics, and fighter profiles.
- Official UFC fight results and statistics
- SportsData API for real-time event and fighter data
- Historical fight records dating back to UFC 1
- Striking, grappling, and clinch statistics per fight
- Physical measurements and biographical data
Our Team
UFC Analytics is built by a team of MMA enthusiasts, data scientists, and software engineers who are passionate about bringing transparency and rigor to fight prediction.
We believe that AI and statistical models should be open about their accuracy and limitations. That is why we publish our model's full performance history on our Transparency page.
Legal Disclaimer
For informational and entertainment purposes only. Not a gambling platform.